On April 6, 1941, Nazi Germany bombed Belgrade without a declaration of war, marking the beginning of the April War against the Kingdom of Yugoslavia. The bombing continued the following day. Estimates of the number of victims range from 2,200 to over 4,000. A total of 627 buildings were completely destroyed and 1,600 were heavily damaged. Hospitals, schools, churches, and residential buildings were destroyed. Besides military targets, the National Library of Serbia on Kosančićev Venac was hit and burned completely. Around 350,000 books, manuscripts, and other valuables were destroyed, many of which dated back to the Middle Ages. Germany territorially divided occupied Yugoslavia, resulting in 1.7 million victims, around 800,000 of whom were brutally murdered by the Ustaše in the Jasenovac concentration camp. Without German occupation, there would have been no Ustaše. There would have been no such victims. Germany is to blame.
RECIPROCAL BANS
On the eve of April 6 this year, Germany imposed a ban on entry for the President of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, Prime Minister Radovan Višković, and the Speaker of the National Assembly, Nenad Stevandić. It was a direct interference in the internal affairs of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which has taken on the characteristics of the biggest political crisis in post-Dayton BiH. And this was again caused by German citizen Christian Schmidt. Schmidt presents himself as the High Representative in BiH, although his appointment was not confirmed by the United Nations Security Council, which is required by the prescribed procedure. Then Ana Lührmann, German Minister for Europe and Climate, came to Banja Luka with the intention of meeting in the building of the National Assembly of Republika Srpska with political opponents of Milorad Dodik and offering them support. Shortly thereafter, the Government of Republika Srpska held a telephone session and decided to declare the German minister persona non grata in Republika Srpska and “ordered the Ministry of Internal Affairs to escort this person out of the borders of Republika Srpska upon entry.”
The President of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, stated that the German Minister for Europe and Climate, Ana Lührmann, came to Banja Luka on Friday to “further belittle Republika Srpska and interfere in the internal affairs of Republika Srpska and Bosnia and Herzegovina.”
“Because of this, the Government of Republika Srpska informed her that she is not welcome,” Dodik told reporters.
FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE OPPOSITION IN REPUBLIKA SRPSKA
The “expulsion” of the German minister provoked reactions from political Sarajevo, German media, as well as the opposition and opposition media in Republika Srpska. It is interesting how the memory of opposition politicians in Republika Srpska has faded regarding Germany’s role in Serbian history, both during the First and Second World Wars. From their perspective, Dodik’s behavior is condemnable, while the German minister and the self-proclaimed High Representative are welcome in Republika Srpska. On the other hand, according to relevant public opinion research, support for Dodik in Republika Srpska is skyrocketing and has currently reached 62 percent. Foreign actors are also researching Dodik’s ratings, and it doesn’t even occur to them to attempt any step towards his arrest based on the warrant issued by the Court of BiH. Interpol has already rejected the request for a “red notice,” citing Article 3 of its statute, which indicates the political motivation behind the entire anti-Dodik process. Interpol simply respected the requests of Serbia, Hungary, Montenegro, and others to reject the request received from Sarajevo, and this international organization has shown seriousness. As time passes, support for Dodik continues to grow, not only domestically but also internationally, much to the dismay of Sarajevo, from where appeals are being made to NATO, EUFOR, and others to arrest Dodik.
A WITCH HUNT WITH ELEMENTS OF COMEDY
The political witch hunt against the President of Republika Srpska is taking on elements of comedy. For him, state borders do not exist, and the statesmen with whom he speaks and who offer him support cannot be dismissed: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Russian President Vladimir Putin. As time goes by, that list grows longer, as does the depression in Sarajevo. More and more media and public policy actors are linking Dodik’s freedom with the fate of Bosnia and Herzegovina. In that context, a slogan that is increasingly heard goes: “Every day Dodik remains free means one less day for Bosnia and Herzegovina.” By that logic, as things stand, Bosnia and Herzegovina might not even exist.
“Dodik is not just winning; he is triumphing”; “Sleep peacefully, the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina will not exist! It already doesn’t.” Believe it or not, these are not headlines from pro-government media in Republika Srpska, but the leading analysts from Sarajevo have portrayed the current political situation in BiH in this way. And they are not wrong. The institutions of BiH are showing their dysfunctionality and the absurdity of the entire process against Dodik.
POLITICS IN THE CROSSFIRE
What especially pains the Sarajevo bazaar (i.e., political circles) is the indication that the problems in BiH will be addressed by the most powerful leaders of today—Putin and Trump—when BiH comes up on the agenda. Certainly not German and British politicians, who are also on the margins of events in resolving the conflict in Ukraine and are entirely uninvited. Thus, together with the French president, they are shaping their policy, which is contrary to both the Russian and the American view on the most important global political issues. The question is only how long they can endure a policy that stands exposed on all sides.
The conflict in Ukraine has economically exhausted European countries, completely emptied warehouses of military equipment, living standards are declining, and governments are politically collapsing. Those better informed understand that a new Yalta is underway, that is, a division of spheres of interest between Russia and the United States, certainly also China, which does not publicly expose itself in this division, but is present.
PUTIN TO TRUMP: “SHAKE ON IT”
An anecdote I recently shared, and emphasized it was an anecdote, sparked fierce reactions in Sarajevo. I was subjected to an orchestrated media attack. The anecdote goes that Trump and Putin, in a phone conversation, agreed that Greenland and Panama would belong to Trump, and Ukraine up to Odesa and the Balkans to Putin. Reportedly, to Trump’s proposal, Putin briefly replied: “Shake on it.” What does this tell us?
That the American-Russian dialogue is what makes the political scene in Sarajevo cringe and tremble. Honestly, what does the Balkans mean to Trump? The priority of his foreign policy is China and the Middle East, i.e., the security of Israel. On the other hand, the Balkans have long been a desire of both Imperial and Soviet Russia, as well as Putin’s Russia. Access to warm seas, and that on a territory mostly populated by Orthodox peoples. Is anything else needed? No.
THE OBRENOVIĆ STRATEGY
Dodik briefly, like Miloš Obrenović, assessed that the moment had come to raise an uprising in order to draw Russia’s attention to the fact that there are problems in the Balkans which, according to an international agreement, should not exist. Namely, Turkey had agreed with Russia—who had to turn to the war with Napoleon—not to take revenge on the Serbs for Karađorđe’s victories, but did so anyway. Miloš, relying on Russia’s strength after the imperial army entered Paris, raised the uprising to summon Russia to the Balkans. Dodik is doing the same. He raised an uprising to summon Russia and America to the Balkans, and to drive out the Germans and their allies. And he is doing well.
