It has been a full ten years since the launch of the initiative known as the Berlin Process. On that occasion, a summit was once again held in Berlin. The result: a Declaration of Support for the Action Plan on a Common Regional Market and an Agreement on Access to Higher Education were signed. It was emphasized that the six countries of the Western Balkans have moved closer together with the agreement on the action plan to strengthen the common regional market, as well as the agreement that is expected to further facilitate movement within the region, with this latest one specifically relating to the academic community. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz highlighted that only with the Western Balkans does the European Union become complete. A similar message was conveyed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who emphasized that EU enlargement will be one of her priorities.
PLAN FOR GROWTH AND DODIK’S OBSERVATIONS
Both Scholz and von der Leyen stated that payments from the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans would begin by the end of the year and be transferred to all Western Balkan countries except Bosnia and Herzegovina, as it has not submitted a complete reform agenda.
“It is clear that the Western Balkan countries will only be able to join the European Union together, which makes the regional initiative for good neighborly relations even more important. I hope it won’t take another ten years for all Balkan countries to finally become members of the European Union,” Scholz said. This format, apart from the six Western Balkan countries, also includes nine “partner countries,” mainly EU neighbors, but also the United Kingdom. Although no longer an EU member, the UK, alongside Germany and France, initiated the Berlin Process ten years ago. Scholz even spoke of the “Berlin ghost.”
The President of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, was skeptical about the new Berlin Process summit and, before its start, stated that the effects of the Berlin Process would not be visible even in the next five years. Instead of bringing Bosnia and Herzegovina closer to the European Union, Dodik said that “everything has been reduced to talk of allowing citizens from so-called Kosovo to enter the country with ID cards.” Due to Republika Srpska’s opposition, Bosnia and Herzegovina has not recognized Kosovo as an independent state and will therefore not allow holders of documents issued by the temporary authorities in Pristina to enter Bosnia and Herzegovina with just ID cards, Dodik stated.
FROM THE BALKANS TO THE URALS
But let’s paraphrase a line from the Russian director Nikita Mikhalkov’s film Sunstroke: How did it all start? And why is a summit being held for a process that was almost forgotten? The conference of Western Balkan countries was held in Berlin on August 28, 2014, at the initiative of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Much was written and speculated about its agenda. It gave the impression of being a puzzle no one was sure how to put together. What did this tell us back then? Firstly, it confirmed that those who pointed out that Germany had been given the role of organizing the political configuration in the Balkans were right, and that the Balkans, since the fall of the Berlin Wall, has been a priority for unified Germany. The explanation for this is found in the age-old ambition for a route to Turkey, that is, to the Asian resources that Germany craves. The route to the Urals—with its inexhaustible rare metals and minerals—proved much harder than expected. The sanctions imposed on Russia by the European Union have backfired like a boomerang. Given that the German economy depends on Russian energy sources, particularly gas, the first wave of the economic crisis was felt as early as the beginning of winter, intensifying throughout the year. Thus, the old route to Turkey became relevant once again. Germany, and by extension the EU, needs secure corridors to access the desired resources in the East.
SOROS’S THEORY IN PRACTICE
Secondly, representatives of the Western Balkans were invited. The term “Western Balkans” often causes confusion as to whether it refers to countries not yet in the EU or simply the geographical western part of the Balkan Peninsula. It turned out that the Western Balkans, along with Albania, consists of countries formed after the dissolution of the former Yugoslavia. Given that Germany played an active role in the breakup of the common state of the South Slavs and led the way in recognizing the independence of the newly formed republics, the question arose as to why these same parts were being gathered into a whole under a different name. Why did they destroy Yugoslavia if they are now reassembling it? The explanation is easily found in the theories of George Soros, another key player in the Yugoslav drama. The whole needs to be broken apart and then reassembled, making it easier to negotiate over resources with its fragmented parts—this is a rough paraphrase of Soros’s theory on the former Yugoslavia, which can be found in his 12-book opus. It’s clear that this idea was not foreign to Germany, and that the path to Turkey is much more comfortable if the Balkans is paved with small states, none of which have more than five million inhabitants. Of the invited states at the Berlin summit, only Serbia doesn’t fit this mold. Small states are not a factor in political, economic, or military terms, and it is easier to install puppet governments in them.
ECONOMY INSTEAD OF CONSTITUTION
Thirdly, the initial announcements of the meeting indicated that it would focus on Bosnia and Herzegovina, but over time, the agenda shifted. Although it was speculated that political party leaders would be invited to Berlin, in the end, only prime ministers, ministers of the economy, and foreign ministers were invited. In any case, the organizers of the meeting do not intend to have serious discussions with entity prime ministers in the future. Although constitutional changes in Bosnia and Herzegovina were the main reason for calling the meeting, the constitution was not discussed much in Berlin. The economy was the main topic, and economic recovery requires regional cooperation, with the banking sector emerging as a key player, dictating the rules and serving as a mechanism for pressure. Although Bosnia and Herzegovina’s western neighbors don’t appreciate being “lumped together” with the Balkans—even the Western Balkans—Slovenia and Croatia had to comply and, hand in hand with the other Yugoslav nations, attend the summit in Berlin in August 2014. However, the political representatives of these countries soon realized that any serious analysis of the Berlin Process pointed to the creation of a “B-league” of the European Union. Slovenia and Croatia quickly distanced themselves from being lumped together in the Western Balkans and from the processes associated with this newly coined political entity, instead becoming “EU partner countries.” Regarding the Western Balkans, it’s a clearly defined political term, not a geographical one, which is why we use a capital “W”—because the term Western Balkans refers to countries that are geographically on the Balkan Peninsula but are not, and it seems will not be, part of the European Union.
SCHENGEN AGAINST RUSSIA AND CHINA
The Berlin Process will be remembered as the leading political initiative of Merkel’s third cabinet related to Southeast Europe. The first conference on the Western Balkans was held in Berlin in 2014, the second in Vienna the following year, the third in Paris in 2016, followed by conferences in other European capitals. Over time, the Berlin Process changed its name to “Mini-Schengen,” in an attempt to present itself as a homegrown Western Balkan initiative, but without success. “Mini-Schengen” was not accepted in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro. The Berlin Process was seen as an attempt to connect the countries of the region economically and politically (which was not hidden), and to collectively tie them to the EU. However, in public discourse, the prevailing view was that this area was being turned into a “gray zone,” a “B-league,” or a waiting room for the EU, where Russian and Chinese influence would not be tolerated, while Croatia’s borders would remain the impenetrable EU line. This was most evident in the EU’s approach to migrants. The simplified message to the Western Balkan countries was: You are not for the EU, but we won’t leave you to the Russians and the Chinese. Russian political influence and Chinese economic investments in the Western Balkans, or rather their prevention, became a priority for the EU and the Anglo-Saxon world. In the end, only Serbia, Albania, and North Macedonia joined the “Mini-Schengen” initiative.
FEAR OF BRICS
What will happen to the Berlin Process after Merkel’s departure as German chancellor, and what will happen to the Western Balkans without her supervision, were questions many posed. And rightly so, it turns out. The Berlin Process was almost forgotten until this year’s summit in Berlin. What was Scholz really trying to achieve by holding a new summit on an old topic?
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The reason lies in the BRICS summit, which was held from October 22 to 24 in Kazan, the capital of Russia’s Republic of Tatarstan. BRICS is becoming increasingly attractive to Western Balkan countries, and it was necessary to divert their attention and tie them back to the German ship. As for EU accession, President Dodik is absolutely right—nothing will change in five or even ten years. EU accession for the Western Balkan countries will remain an unattainable goal, while promises and, simultaneously, political conditioning will continue to be used. In the end, it’s worth remembering the words of the Minister for Scientific and Technological Development and Higher Education in the Government of Republika Srpska, Željko Budimir: “BRICS represents an alternative to the old world, which is in the process of descending from the historical and global stage. Therefore, it is important that Srpska recognizes friends, partners, and allies in the world that is being built.”
