What is Sofia planning: American jets, Bulgarian money

To what extent is the modernization of Bulgaria's air force connected to the ambitions and plans of the United States?

According to Bulgaria’s new defense strategy, the primary military threat to the country has been identified as the Russian Federation. This decision has shaped the structure and subsequent steps in the development of Bulgaria’s armed forces. Despite statements from politicians that the modernization of the country’s ground forces is a priority, the actual reorganization and improvement efforts have been focused on the air force. This decision is both pragmatic and practical: given Bulgaria’s geographical position, it is unlikely the country would face a direct ground conflict with Russia.

MODERNIZATION ALIGNED WITH U.S. INTERESTS

The situation differs when considering the Black Sea as a potential theater of war. Modern maritime warfare relies less on surface and submarine capabilities and more on a strong and well-armed combat aviation force.

However, there is another reason for this choice. Bulgaria is a small and relatively poor country that lost much of its military and industrial capabilities after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact. In this context, one of the few effective options for Sofia to enhance its defense capabilities is to secure a strong military ally—or even a protector. Such an ally has been found in the United States, which has an interest in expanding its military infrastructure and capabilities along NATO’s eastern flank.

Although the United States has publicly expressed “indifference” and a “reluctance to confront Russia” over the past decades, it has actively increased its military presence in Eastern Europe. Moreover, this effort is not limited to defensive projects but extends to infrastructure capable of supporting large-scale offensive operations in the air domain. For more than six years, Washington has conducted continuous aerial reconnaissance over the Black Sea and Baltic regions. Additionally, it has established a network of military bases in countries that were once part of the socialist bloc: Romania, Hungary, former Yugoslav republics, the Baltic states, and, of course, Bulgaria. The modernization of Bulgaria’s air force is closely tied to the ambitions and plans of the United States, and it would be a mistake to view these processes as separate and unconnected.

FLEET RENEWAL

Before delving into the primary innovation in Bulgaria’s air force, it’s worth reflecting on the modernization of its technical base. For a long time, Bulgaria exclusively relied on Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets and Su-25 attack aircraft (specifically, the earliest modifications of these models). These planes had long become unsuitable even for patrol missions—they were too old and worn out, and the lack of investment in their modernization rendered them incapable of performing even the simplest combat tasks.

In 2019, Bulgaria decided to renew its fleet, resulting in its first contract for F-16C/D Block 70 fighters from the American corporation Lockheed Martin. The initial order was modest, with only eight aircraft. However, in 2022, following negotiations with Washington and generous terms offered by the United States, the order was expanded. Sofia secured an additional eight combat aircraft (16 in total), two combat training aircraft, and access to an expanded arsenal of American precision “air-to-ground” weapons.

Additionally, in September 2022, the Bulgarian Ministry of Defense announced a contract with the Czech company Aero Vodochody for the modernization and overhaul of 12 L-39ZA Albatros training aircraft. In October 2024, it was further announced that Bulgaria had purchased the IRIS-T air defense system from Germany.

THE ROLE OF FIGHTERS IN NAVAL WARFARE

Eighteen modern multirole fighters represent a significant force, as evidenced by the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. While it would be naive to assume that such a number of fighters could bear the brunt of a prolonged ground war, they could play a significant role in naval warfare.

In 2022, Ukraine successfully thwarted the Russian navy using a combination of a small number of outdated Su-24M tactical bombers, Harpoon and Neptune anti-ship missiles, and a squadron of Bayraktar TB-2 drones. These modest resources were sufficient to limit Russian naval operations, prevent a blockade of Ukraine’s coastline, maintain control over Snake Island, and avoid significant fleet losses.

There is no doubt that the newer F-16C/D Block 70 fighters, equipped with advanced avionics and weaponry, could achieve similar objectives, potentially with even greater efficiency. However, Bulgaria’s real ability to secure its military potential in the Black Sea region lies not so much in the strength of its own armed forces as in the capabilities of Sofia’s allies.

GRAF IGNATIEVO AIR BASE

The key focus of the Bulgarian Ministry of Defense in modernizing the armed forces has been the extensive reconstruction of Graf Ignatievo Air Base—one of the largest and best-equipped aviation infrastructure facilities in the region.

This choice was not coincidental. Graf Ignatievo is crucial not only for Bulgaria’s air force but also for the United States. Since the start of its modernization, the Pentagon has repeatedly invested in the process (e.g., in 2018, $100 million was allocated for upgrading the training center), and American military contractors oversee at least 52 modernization projects for the base. Interestingly, all new facilities at Graf Ignatievo are certified by U.S. military authorities.

What does the modernization of Bulgaria’s air base involve? Officially, it is said to focus on creating the infrastructure necessary for operating F-16 fighters. However, even limited publicly available information suggests that Graf Ignatievo is being expanded and reconstructed to accommodate far more aircraft than those currently used or planned for use by Bulgaria’s air force. An indirect indication of this is the U.S. Air Force exercises held at the base—for instance, the deployment of the 104th Fighter Wing and the 131st Squadron of the National Guard, which use heavy F-15C fighters.

COMPARABLE TO RAMSTEIN AIR BASE

Even in its current state, while still under construction, Graf Ignatievo Air Base is already capable of accommodating and maintaining dozens of heavy combat aircraft and hundreds of pilots and technical personnel. This capability could fundamentally shift the military balance in the Black Sea region.

Despite numerous reports of construction issues at Graf Ignatievo, the base is already fulfilling its primary functions. Barracks and the training center have been renovated, the flight control center has been upgraded, and runways have been extended and reconstructed. While this represents a minimal operational level, it allows Graf Ignatievo to function as a fully operational military facility in combat conditions.

However, modernization efforts continue. As one of NATO’s key aviation infrastructure facilities in the region, the base must support the permanent deployment of combat aircraft. This requires a complex of hangars, hardened shelters, underground ammunition storage, and fuel storage facilities. At this stage, these elements are practically nonexistent; the old Soviet infrastructure cannot meet the requirements for the long-term operation and maintenance of modern Western fighters. Nonetheless, once all construction and technical work is complete, the role and strategic significance of Graf Ignatievo could rival that of Germany’s Ramstein Air Base and Turkey’s Incirlik Air Base during the Cold War.

CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS

Despite the Bulgarian Ministry of Defense’s efforts to improve its air combat capabilities, the country’s air force currently faces significant resource and equipment shortages. For a long time, Bulgaria’s airspace defense relied on the Soviet concept of combining surface-to-air missile systems with light fighters. While this approach has been criticized by European and American military experts, it proved effective during the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. However, Bulgaria’s air force has shown an exceptionally low level of competence compared to Ukraine’s—the Soviet-era equipment has not been adequately maintained or modernized for decades.

At present, Bulgaria’s stockpile of surface-to-air missile systems, radars, and Soviet-era combat aircraft is entirely outdated. Several operational or repairable units were transferred to Ukraine, leaving Bulgaria with an insufficient fleet of 18 F-16C/D fighters to address the threats it faces.

Russia has demonstrated an impressive ability to conduct massive attacks using cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as strike drones. Moreover, Moscow has proven capable of producing such weapons faster than Western military analysts anticipated. Russia’s vast arsenal of missiles has already depleted Ukraine’s Soviet-era air defense stockpiles and would quickly overwhelm Bulgaria’s limited air defense reserves. NATO, on the other hand, has shown alarmingly low production capacity in the area of air defense systems. The quantity and quality of available projects are inadequate, and the slow pace of manufacturing new missile defense systems offers little hope for replenishing losses during active combat.

FOCUS ON STRIKE DRONES

Even in peacetime, Bulgaria struggles with routine airspace surveillance. Its outdated Soviet radars are not only incompatible with new NATO aircraft and infrastructure but are also barely operational, with no prospects for replacement. Overall, Bulgaria is currently defenseless against missile strikes similar to those seen in Ukraine. Only intervention by NATO allies could resolve this situation.

However, Sofia is striving to improve its offensive air capabilities—not just through the acquisition of American precision-guided bombs but also through its domestic military industry. These efforts include a focus on strike drones or, more specifically, missile-like unmanned aerial vehicles. These represent a cost-effective and functional alternative to traditional cruise missiles. This topic warrants further analysis in a separate article on Bulgaria’s advancements in drone aviation technology.