What are the potential benefits and implications of Serbia becoming a member of BRICS. How BRICS membership could influence Serbia’s future development? What are the strategic advantages, potential challenges, and offer informed policy recommendations to support Serbia’s consideration of BRICS membership? Ultimately, what are pros and cons for Serbia in this significant geopolitical alignment?
CURENT GLOBAL POSITION OF SERBIA
The current global position of Serbia, both economically and geopolitically, is very complex. Indeed, we cannot say that it has been much easier in the past. Simply put, the position of Serbia and the Serb people in the Balkans has historically been very challenging, and somehow the Serbs have been dealing with this for centuries.
However, the expansion of NATO and practically the encirclement that has formed around Serbia, territorial claims on Serb land by the Albanians, economic and strategic pressure by the Croatia, and diplomatic actions by the Bosnian Muslims, certainly complicate Serbia’s position. All these various claims from neighboring peoples have their origins in their sponsors during the wars that were fought, following the similarly sponsored breakup of Yugoslavia. Albania and Croatia are NATO member countries, while the Albanians in Kosovo and Metohija, as well as the Bosnian Muslims, are extremely keen on their membership in every sense. By observing this gradual division into the basic levers of the Balkans, we see where it all comes from. If we consider that the United States is the largest shareholder of NATO spending, and that Germany and France have recently practically become its subsidiaries, the situation is clear, and it cannot be said that Serbia has a favorable position in the strategic plans of the West. Those who once bombed Serbia are always ready for the worst things. Another reason for tightening the encirclement around Serbia is the spiritual and historical connection between Serbs and Russians, which is simply impossible to break among the ordinary majority of the people. The truth is that Western governments are doing their utmost to cut this connection, but no matter how hard they try and invest into their NGO branches across Serbia, this process remains only on sporadic public outbursts without significant influence on the public and the people.
Alongside this geopolitical situation in Serbia, the economic one is also complex. Serbia’s GDP has been on a steady growth trajectory, driven by a diverse range of sectors including manufacturing, agriculture, and services. Despite global economic uncertainties, Serbia’s economy has shown resilience. In recent years, the GDP growth rate has averaged around 3-4% annually, although this growth is often influenced by external factors such as global market conditions and regional stability.
Serbia has had a trade deficit for a long period of years, with imports surpassing exports. The country’s main exports include machinery, agricultural products, metals and vehicles, while it imports machinery, chemicals, fuels, and consumer goods. Germany is Serbia’s largest trading partner, accounting for a significant portion of both exports and imports. Additionally, Serbia has been expanding its trade relationships with countries like Russia and China, leveraging free trade agreements.
Source: TrendEconomy
IS SERBIA READY FOR EASTERN ALIANCES?
It can be said that Serbia has already been part of an eastern alliance in its history. True, it was during the time of Yugoslavia, but Serbia is today the successor of that state and thus still enjoys some benefits of those former alliances. The Non-Aligned Movement is the alliance I am referring to, which played a serious role between the two blocs during the Cold War period. Yugoslavia was one of the leaders of this movement. There aren’t many parallels between BRICS and the Non-Aligned Movement, but such an alliance would not be foreign to Serbs, quite the opposite!
However, current facts indicate that Serbia has been a candidate for European Union membership since 2012 and has been undergoing accession negotiations. At this moment, EU integration remains a central goal of Serbia’s foreign policy, influencing many reforms and international relations. A sort of confirmation of this is one of the latest statements by the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, who said in response to a question regarding BRICS: “I have the utmost respect for BRICS, but Serbia is on the European path, and Serbia will remain on it.“
This is certainly the position of the President of Serbia and as such should be respected, but that statement does not mean that Serbia has no its place and chances in BRICS. Just as Serbia’s European path does not mean there is no cooperation and investment with Russia and China. Serbia maintains strong historical and cultural ties with Russia, which is reflected in their ongoing political and economic cooperation. In recent years, Serbia has also strengthened its relationship with China, attracting significant Chinese investments, particularly in infrastructure and technology.
Serbia’s foreign policy is characterized by a balancing act between its aspirations for EU membership and its strategic partnerships with Russia and China. This unique position allows Serbia to leverage benefits from both Western and Eastern alliances, but how the situation in world is unfolding, especially in regard to the war in Ukraine and USA sanctions toward China, it remains a huge question of how long will Serbia leverage its balancing benefits.
TRADE AND INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR SERBIA IN BRICS
As Serbia considers joining BRICS, the potential for enhancing its trade and investment landscape is immense. The BRICS nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—along with new members like Egypt, Ethiopia, the UAE, and Iran, represent some of the world’s most dynamic economies. This alignment could provide Serbia with unprecedented opportunities for economic growth and development.
Membership in BRICS would open Serbia to vast markets, significantly diversifying its trade relationships. Imagine Serbian agricultural products reaching new consumers across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. The potential for increased exports in machinery, pharmaceuticals, and IT services is enormous. In return, Serbia could benefit from importing essential goods like energy resources, electronics, and textiles from these emerging economies.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) from BRICS countries could be a game-changer for Serbia. The strategic location of Serbia in Southeast Europe makes it an attractive gateway for BRICS investors looking to access European markets. For instance, renewable energy projects funded by BRICS nations could help Serbia transition to a more sustainable energy mix, reducing reliance on traditional energy sources and enhancing energy security. Infrastructure projects, already a focus for Chinese investors in Serbia, could see further expansion. Highways, railways, and technology parks developed with BRICS investment would not only modernize Serbia’s infrastructure but also create jobs and spur economic activity.
Technological collaboration with BRICS countries could accelerate Serbia’s innovation and military industry, especially in the field of modern drones and AI development. Joint ventures in technology and education would enhance Serbia’s human capital, making it more competitive on the global stage. The influx of knowledge and expertise would drive growth in high-tech industries, positioning Serbia as a regional hub for innovation.
While Serbia’s economy is smaller compared to BRICS giants, there are significant areas of synergy. Serbia’s robust agricultural sector can complement Brazil’s, while both countries benefit from sharing sustainable farming practices. In the energy sector, Serbia’s collaboration with Russia could enhance its energy infrastructure and security. The technological prowess of China and India aligns well with Serbia’s skilled workforce, leading to potential breakthroughs in IT and manufacturing.
Moreover, Serbia’s strategic location makes it a pivotal player in connecting BRICS markets to Europe. The country’s developed transport networks and logistic capabilities can facilitate smoother trade flows, making Serbia an essential node in global supply chains. This geographical advantage, coupled with strong diplomatic ties, positions Serbia as a crucial partner within BRICS.
POLITICAL AND DIPLOMATIC ASPECTS
Serbia’s geopolitical strategy is characterized by its strategic balancing act between East and West. Historically, Serbia has maintained strong ties with both Western and Eastern powers, leveraging its unique position in the Balkans to foster relationships that benefit its national interests. Serbia’s aspirations for European Union (EU) membership drive many of its policies, yet it also values its longstanding cultural and political ties with Russia and increasingly with China. This multifaceted approach allows Serbia to maximize its diplomatic and economic gains.
Until now BRICS countries were actually the only ones supportive of the sovereignty of Serbia regarding the situation with Kosovo and Metohija. The founder BRICS countries did not recognize the self-proclaimed Kosovo, while on the other hand, America, Germany, and France were among the first to do so, as well as most of the EU countries, except Greece, Slovakia Cyprus, Spain and Romania. The BRICS alliance, known for promoting a multipolar world order, would provide Serbia with a platform to engage with major emerging economies, thereby diversifying its international partnerships and reducing over-reliance on the West.
By joining BRICS, Serbia would institutionalize these relationships, enabling more structured and sustained cooperation across multiple sectors. This would provide Serbia with a solid diplomatic foundation to further its national interests on the global stage. Being part of a powerful bloc like BRICS would increase Serbia’s political leverage in international negotiations and forums. This membership would provide Serbia with a louder voice in advocating for its interests, particularly in areas such as territorial integrity and sovereignty issues.
CHALLENGES AND RISKS OF BRICS MEMBERSHIP FOR SERBIA
While BRICS membership offers numerous opportunities for Serbia, it is also important to consider the potential challenges and risks associated with such a significant geopolitical shift. These challenges span both economic and political domains and must be carefully managed to ensure that the benefits of BRICS membership outweigh the risks.
In the sense of economic risks, joining BRICS could expose Serbia to trade imbalances, particularly if the country becomes overly reliant on imports from BRICS nations. This reliance could negatively impact local industries and lead to a trade deficit, undermining Serbia’s economic stability. BRICS countries, while offering large markets, also come with economic volatility. Fluctuations in the economies of BRICS countries could impact Serbia’s trade and investment flows, making its economy more susceptible to external shocks. Increased trade with BRICS nations could pose significant competition for Serbian industries, particularly in sectors where BRICS countries have strong competitive advantages. This might lead to challenges for local businesses in maintaining market share and profitability.
In terms of political risks, there could be significant political opposition within Serbia to joining BRICS. Critics may argue that aligning too closely with BRICS could jeopardize Serbia’s EU accession prospects and undermine its Western alliances. This opposition could manifest in public protests, political debates, and resistance from key political stakeholders. Serbia’s traditional balancing act between East and West could become more complex with BRICS membership. Managing relations with both BRICS and Western countries might lead to diplomatic tensions and require delicate maneuvering to avoid alienating either side. Increased foreign influence, particularly from powerful BRICS nations like China and Russia, might raise concerns of the opposition parties about Serbia’s sovereignty. There will be for sure some apprehensions from the western sponsored NGOs about Serbia becoming too dependent on these countries, leading to potential compromises in its national policy-making.
While the potential benefits of BRICS membership for Serbia are substantial, it is crucial to acknowledge and address the economic and political challenges and risks associated with this strategic move. A thorough risk assessment and the development of mitigation strategies will be essential to ensure that Serbia can carefully maximize the benefits of BRICS membership in future, while safeguarding its economic stability and political sovereignty.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The future outlook for Serbia as a potential BRICS member is promising indeed, marked by significant opportunities for economic growth, enhanced global influence, and strategic geopolitical alignment with friendly countries. Serbia stands at a pivotal juncture in its international relations, and BRICS membership presents a unique opportunity to redefine its economic and geopolitical future. The potential benefits—ranging from economic diversification and growth to enhanced global influence and strategic alliances—make a compelling case for Serbia to consider joining BRICS.
However, it is essential for Serbia to carefully navigate the challenges and risks associated with BRICS membership. Effective management of economic and political risks will be crucial to ensuring that the benefits of BRICS membership are fully realized.
In conclusion, BRICS membership offers Serbia a promising pathway to achieving its long-term economic and geopolitical goals. This strategic move, while demanding careful consideration and planning, holds the potential to transform Serbia into a thriving hub of trade, innovation, and diplomacy on the global stage.
Author: Eliot Nash
