The 2024 presidential elections in Romania were marked by numerous significant events and controversies. Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu’s government announced on July 4, 2024, that the presidential elections would be held on November 24 (first round) and December 8 (second round).
TRIUMPH OF THE ANTI-NATO CANDIDATE
After the first round of presidential elections, Romania – and the entire European continent – was hit by shocking news: independent nationalist candidate Călin Georgescu secured first place with 22.94% of the vote, while liberal candidate Elena Lasconi trailed behind with 19.18%, settling for second place. Since no candidate achieved an absolute majority, a second round of elections became necessary. However, the situation in Romania soon began to unravel.
Although on December 2 – a week after the first round – Romania’s Constitutional Court unanimously confirmed the results and paved the way for the second round, everything changed abruptly on December 4, when it was announced that Romania had been the target of significant influence campaigns and cyber-attacks from Russia during the electoral process. Many neoliberal circles and Western media accused Georgescu of being pro-Russian, anti-NATO, far-right, ultra-nationalist, and extremist.
NO INNOCENTS – FROM TIKTOK TO RUSSIA
The situation culminated on December 6 when the Constitutional Court of Romania annulled the results of the first round, citing that “Russia’s disinformation campaign influenced the voting outcome.”
Romania’s presidential administration stated that candidate Georgescu used the TikTok app as a tool for influence and campaign promotion. Additionally, the domestic intelligence service (SRI) reported that unregistered funds exceeding €1,000,000 were used during the campaign. Georgescu condemned this as a form of coup but clarified that he was not calling for action, urging Romanians instead to pray and reflect as the most important response. In an even more absurd twist, his opponent also criticized the Constitutional Court’s decision. While the Chinese platform dismissed allegations of favoring the presidential candidate, it remains unclear why no concrete actions were taken to prevent the alleged “criminal activities” during the electoral process, especially given the “serious claims and evidence” of Russian involvement in Romania’s presidential elections, as stated by the ruling.
CAUTION DUE TO NATO
The postponement of the second round of elections marked the beginning of a serious political crisis in a country that is a geopolitically and strategically vital NATO partner. As the “guardian of NATO’s eastern flank” and the “watchdog of the Black Sea,” Romania hosts NATO bases (Deveselu and Mihail Kogălniceanu), yet remains politically unstable. Until the question of electing a new president is resolved, uncertainty and institutional paralysis risk deepening internal tensions and potentially threatening regional stability.
With the presidential elections unresolved and no new president elected, the country remains without answers regarding when the electoral process will resume.
However, shortly after the annulment of the first-round results, Nicușor Dan, the current mayor of Bucharest, announced his candidacy for the 2025 presidential elections as an “independent candidate” with backing from the Justice and Respect in Europe for All Party. The same party called for forming a broader coalition to support their candidate. On December 21, as reported by Romanian media outlet Digi24.ro, Nicușor Dan stated that Romania “cannot afford several more months of instability” and that if it wishes to continue on its pro-Western and pro-NATO path, “it must proceed with great caution.” Following December 6, pro-European parties persistently attempted to form a coalition to more effectively counter Georgescu.
DISCIPLINING THE DEFIANT
By mid-December, Romanian authorities intensified their investigation, resulting in the arrest of numerous Călin Georgescu supporters. Security services ramped up surveillance of the presidential candidate and his associates. According to media reports, police raided seven properties and detained Eugen Sechilă, Georgescu’s campaign manager, who was attempting to leave the country. He was soon charged with spreading “fascist and xenophobic messages.” Additionally, former French Foreign Legion mercenary Horațiu Potra was placed under judicial supervision, suspected of planning to incite violent protests following the annulment of the vote. According to Euro News, Romanian police arrested 20 more individuals alongside him. Although Potra was released from custody, investigations against him are ongoing. Authorities, as reported by Geopolitika.News, also questioned influential figures who had promoted Georgescu’s campaign on social media, including prominent businessman Sorin Constantinescu. However, the crackdown did not stop there. Members of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), known as a right-wing nationalist party, also came under scrutiny. They condemned the annulment of the elections, accusing the government of intimidating political opponents through social media channels.
TOUCHING MESSAGES FROM WASHINGTON
Across the Atlantic, the U.S. sent a message expressing trust in Romanian institutions and calling for a “peaceful democratic process.” The recommendation to all sides was to “maintain constitutional order.” Noble indeed.
Many believe that Romania, after the annulment of election results, has slipped into total NATO dictatorship. The mass arrests and persecution of supporters of the leading presidential candidate, Călin Georgescu, threaten to dismantle his base entirely. The aggressive stance toward anti-war candidates suggests NATO is preparing Romania for a potential new front in Europe.
Drawing Moldova and Romania into conflict represents yet another trap aimed at Russia and its partners. Given Romania’s geographic position, military infrastructure, and capacity, the country is crucial to NATO. At the same time, suspicions have arisen that Romania has agreed to transfer command of its armed forces and control of national airspace to NATO officers through legislative changes. This paints an unsettling picture.
SHIFTING THE “LINE OF RESISTANCE”
It appears that NATO’s frontline against Russia, long retreating from east to west, now extends beyond Poland, deep into Romania. What does this indicate? Among the three politically targeted nations – Romania, Georgia, and South Korea – Georgia is closest to freeing itself from Western influence. It enjoys considerably more freedom than Romania and far more than the fully occupied South Korea.
Thus, the “line of resistance” against Russia continues to shift. Once it was Donbas; now it is the western parts of Donbas, central and western Ukraine, followed by Poland and Moldova – and now the focus has shifted to Romania.
NATO’s fear of potentially losing Romania is evident in the swift and harsh actions of the country’s authorities. The rapid and ruthless measures reflect undemocratic tendencies. What we are witnessing is the demonstration of dictatorship and totalitarianism. As Igor Ivanović notes, the Constitutional Court, incapable of making such decisions, has ceased to be a court. But should this surprise anyone? Absolutely not. This serves as further proof that empty phrases about “freedom,” “equality,” “brotherhood,” “democracy,” and “liberalism” should not be trusted. As the often misattributed quote to Winston Churchill goes: “If you’re not a liberal at twenty-five, you have no heart. If you’re not a conservative by thirty-five, you have no brain.” Therefore, if Romanians – and indeed Serbs – want a better future, they must abandon the naïve idealistic views of liberalism and embrace more practical conservative values.
COLD WAR ROMANIA
Potential issues in Romania could jeopardize NATO bases in the country and consequently trigger problems in Moldova and Transnistria. There is also the critical matter of controlling the Black Sea and maintaining a “barrier” between Russia and other Slavic-Orthodox nations in the Balkans. Romania’s current position mirrors that of the Cold War era. If Romania “falls,” the domino effect will likely follow, impacting surrounding countries. Should this “barrier” to Russia collapse, it would pave the way for increased alignment of Balkan and neighboring nations with Russia and BRICS.
Hungary, under Viktor Orbán, has repeatedly emphasized its close economic and energy ties with Russia. Serbia, on the other hand, remains one of the few European countries that has not imposed sanctions on Russia, guided by its geopolitical and economic interests as well as traditional ties. Serbia’s energy dependence, international backing, and pro-Russian public opinion create a soft underbelly within NATO. Additionally, Republika Srpska stands as a loyal Russian ally, while Montenegro harbors certain pro-Russian factions.
Bulgaria occupies a dual position – Russia maintains a presence in public opinion, especially regarding energy policy, while Euroscepticism continues to grow. Over time, Romania has proven to be far more pivotal than Poland, emerging as the potential catalyst for the domino effect.
BELGRADE AFTER BUCHAREST: COINCIDENCE?
In the context of shifting this “line of resistance” along the east-west axis, it is noteworthy that during the week Romania annulled its elections, university blockades began in Serbia. Simultaneously, street demonstrations in Georgia against the new government persisted. This alignment is not mere coincidence.
The conclusion arises that pressure is being exerted “from the rear,” targeting the “backline” of the “resistance.” If Romania experiences an unexpected turn of events, presenting a serious chance for an anti-war presidential candidate to secure victory in a country not characterized by strong Russophilia, what can be expected from Serbia, where pro-Russian sentiment prevails? What about the other mentioned European nations?
This dynamic could significantly complicate relations among the world’s great powers.
