Turkey employs several methods to aggressively expand its sphere of influence—through weaponry, arms trade, the activities of ideologically aggressive humanitarian organizations (such as IHH and TIKA), and, to a lesser extent, diplomacy. This framework also applies to Turkey’s efforts to establish strong ties with North Macedonia and its armed forces. After securing significant footholds in Kosovo and Albania, Turkey made its next strategic move—supporting the Muslim Albanian community in Macedonia. The gateway for this expansion was ASELSAN.
CONCESSIONS FOR NATO MEMBERSHIP
The Army of the Republic of North Macedonia (ARSM) is strategically organized as a land force with military aviation and a river fleet, serving as support for ground operations. The armed forces of the former Yugoslav republic consist of 20,000 professional soldiers and officers, along with a reserve force of 48,000 personnel. The primary foreign suppliers of military equipment for the Macedonian army have traditionally been the United States, Serbia, Bulgaria, and Ukraine.
North Macedonia’s accession to NATO was initially planned during the 2008 NATO Summit in Bucharest, but Greece blocked the process due to a political dispute over the country’s name. NATO members at the time agreed that North Macedonia would receive an invitation to join the military alliance once the issue with Greece was resolved. The Prespa Agreement, signed in 2018, was intended to expedite North Macedonia’s entry into the EU and NATO by requiring the country to adopt the name “North Macedonia” to distinguish it from the Greek region of Macedonia. However, the agreement faced a setback during the national referendum, as voter turnout reached only 36.89%, instead of the required 50% plus one vote, making the referendum legally non-binding. As a result, Parliament had to ratify the Prespa Agreement by a two-thirds majority, which it did on January 11, 2019. This was followed by North Macedonia’s official NATO membership on March 27, 2020.
WITH RESPECT TO MACEDONIAN HISTORY…
Turkey gradually paved the way for its entry into this deeply divided yet strategically significant country, first through donations and later by supporting North Macedonia’s NATO accession. Turkish Minister of National Defense, Vecdi Gönül, began his two-day visit to North Macedonia by touring the ARM Technical-Repair Center, where he handed over a donation of unused, factory-new motor vehicles and technical equipment worth $250,000. That same day, Macedonia and Turkey signed a military-financial cooperation agreement stipulating that Turkey would provide military assistance of the country’s choice, amounting to approximately $1 million in the following year.
“Turkey was not only the first country to recognize Macedonia and the first to send an ambassador, but it also acknowledged the country with its thousand-year-old history, rather than some abbreviation,” said the Turkish official. He added that since his first visit in 2004, the country had made significant progress in defense and democracy.
MILLION-DOLLAR DONATIONS
The Macedonian Minister of Defense stated that military cooperation with Turkey began in 1993 and intensified in 1994, revealing that Macedonia’s outreach to Turkey was not a sudden, unexpected development, but rather a necessity due to pressures the country was facing. Of course, the initial military-technical cooperation was nowhere near the level of today’s collaboration. Military cooperation between the two countries has since deepened, particularly in the fields of education, training, and donations.
Since 1998, total donations from Turkey have exceeded $16 million. However, certain tensions occasionally emerged in Turkish-Macedonian relations, especially in 2019, due to Skopje’s stance on the so-called “FETO” organization of Fethullah Gülen. For Ankara, the attempted coup in Turkey and Gülen’s alleged role in it was a top-priority issue. Since the Macedonian government did not take any action on the matter, Turkey annulled some agreements related to the recognition of Macedonian diplomas in 2019.
At the same time, Greece and North Macedonia were actively negotiating their long-standing name dispute, presenting another challenge in Turkish-Macedonian relations. It seemed that North Macedonia was shifting its foreign policy direction, and by signing the Prespa Agreement, it opened a new chapter in its bilateral relations with Greece.
During his historic visit to Skopje, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras announced that Greek armed forces would protect North Macedonia’s airspace and train its military personnel once the country joined NATO. However, events took a different turn. Military cooperation with Turkey had begun much earlier, and many high-ranking officers in North Macedonia’s military had already been trained in Turkish military academies.
ANKARA’S OUTSTRETCHED HAND
North Macedonia undoubtedly gained importance by chairing the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in 2023. Stevo Pendarovski, the country’s president from 2019 to 2024, described the OSCE chairmanship as a “great challenge” for North Macedonia, given its status as a small country with limited resources.
“We took on the leadership of an organization with 57 member states, from the United States and Canada to Russia and Central Asia. This is no easy task, but we are well-prepared,” Pendarovski emphasized. He also stated, “North Macedonia is making efforts to mitigate the conflict in Ukraine. We are in contact with both sides.”
However, in the shadow of North Macedonia’s involvement in geopolitical conflicts lies the reality of a deeply divided society—marked by political strife, persecution (such as the exile of former Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski), arrests of key members of the leading political force VMRO-DPMNE, ethnic tensions, mafia clashes, and street assassinations. Isolated from its neighbors, unrecognized in many aspects, and caught in persistent internal turmoil, North Macedonia has continued its geopolitical struggles. This ultimately led it into active military-technical cooperation with Turkey—a country and culture that, for over five centuries, suppressed indigenous national narratives, Islamized its rulers and society, and kept it in subjugation.
TURKISH MILITARY-DEFENSE INDUSTRY
The Turkish defense industry has experienced significant growth and transformation over the past decades, driven by a strategic vision of reducing dependence on foreign suppliers and strengthening national security capabilities.
The Turkish military-defense industry is focused on the development of domestic systems and platforms. Significant examples are the Altay main battle tank, the Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial vehicle, and the Hürjet trainer and light attack aircraft. Technological innovations: advancements in technology have played a key role in Turkey’s defense strategy. The development of systems such as the ASELPOD Targeting Pod and the TAI TF “KAAN” fighter jet are the best examples. Although it is a NATO alliance member, Turkey, by making the decision to procure the S-400 missile defense system from Russia, has demonstrated a strategic shift towards a sovereign, more autonomous defense policy. This decision marked a significant change in Turkey’s defense practice and its relations with NATO allies.
The cancellation of Turkey’s participation in the F-35 program due to the purchase of the S-400 is an example of the complexity of its defense strategies. Through the MILGEM project office, Turkey is working on the construction of a modern coastal combat ship with anti-submarine warfare and open-sea patrol capabilities.
It is important to emphasize that the most significant companies in the defense industry are: ALP, Baykar, GLOBAL, KALE Aero, Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), Turkish Technic, TUSAŞ, Engine Industry, Vestel Savunma, ASPİLSAN, and GENPOWER. Electronic and software reconnaissance and military satellite models such as Göktürk-2, along with the Turkish military ATAK helicopter, have opened new possibilities. The most important companies in this field are ASELSAN, AYESAŞ, Altay, Ticaret A.Ş., EXIM, ESDAS GATE, HTR, MiKES, NETAS, Savronik, SDT Space & Defense Technology, SELEX, and Bayraktar TB2 UAV. Thanks to this industry, Turkey’s (recently written as Türkiye) global share in the arms trade has increased from 0.6% to 1.1% in the period from 2018 to 2022, making the country the 12th largest arms exporter in the world.
AMONG THE TOP 100
On the list of the 100 best defense companies for 2022—an annual ranking by the global website Defense News—three Turkish companies were among the top 100. Aselsan ranked 49th, Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) was in 67th place, and Roketsan was 86th. In 2020, there were seven Turkish companies on the list. Although fewer companies are now included in the Top 100, Turkish arms exports have sharply increased over three years. While defense exports amounted to 2.28 billion dollars in 2020, they rose to 4.3 billion dollars in 2022.
On the other hand, the 2022 report on international arms transfers, prepared by the Swedish institute SIPRI, shows that Turkish arms exports increased by 69 percent in the four-year period from 2018 to 2022 compared to the period from 2013 to 2017. Turkish manufacturers of missiles, ships, drones, vehicles, and military software are also producing equipment that does not require foreign components. Reports state that Aselsan, the largest defense company in Turkey, has contracts and orders worth 7.6 billion dollars. BMC has two years’ worth of orders for its mine-resistant Kirpi vehicles. Baykar Tech and Bayraktar have also asked their customers to wait several years for drone deliveries. BMC claims that many countries are looking forward to purchasing the Turkish Altay tank. Another sales boom is expected once TFX jets take to the skies. Finally, Roketsan has successfully produced surface-to-air missiles with a range of 150 kilometers.
AMONG THE 10 LARGEST ARMS EXPORTERS
Turkey could soon rank among the 10 largest arms exporters and, within ten years, reach 20 billion dollars in export revenue. In addition to military force, Turkey has secured access to the international arms market in other ways. On one hand, it has leveraged the community of Turkic-speaking countries, including Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. On the other, it has expanded into the Qatari and Gulf petromonarchies’ markets.
A third group of countries is in Africa, both in the Maghreb and in West Africa. The threat of jihadist groups has created demand for Turkish products such as mine-resistant armored vehicles and drones. Turkey’s status as a Muslim country and a NATO member also plays a significant role. Ultimately, Turkey has recognized the importance of North Macedonia, which has long been neglected and disregarded but remains geopolitically significant.
STEP TOWARDS GLOBAL EXPANSION
After Aselsan officially opened a new regional office in Skopje, the capital of North Macedonia, as part of its global expansion strategy, it became clear that Turkey is establishing a new intelligence center in the Balkans, whose significance far exceeds the economic reasons for its presence in Macedonia.
Aselsan is a leading Turkish defense company and has been active in North Macedonia since 2014. Now, with the opening of its new office in Skopje, it is expanding its presence in the Balkans. The opening ceremony, marking a significant step in Aselsan’s global expansion, was attended by Prof. Dr. Haluk Görgün, Turkey’s Secretary of Defense Industry, and Ahmet Akyol, CEO and President of Aselsan. The establishment of a regional office in Skopje, which holds a central position as a gateway to both Western and Eastern European markets, will provide Aselsan with numerous strategic advantages, facilitate access to the Balkans, and enhance cooperation in the region. Through its presence, the Turkish state is also exerting control over the former Ottoman territories.
ISTANBUL-SARAJEVO-SKOPJE
The idea of the “Green Transversal,” which envisions connecting Islamic strongholds from Istanbul to Sarajevo via Macedonia, is beginning to take shape as a realistic plan. Although the official company website states that the Aselsan Balkans office will engage in marketing and business development activities, focusing on customer satisfaction and post-sales support for countries using Aselsan products and systems, its role and presence in this regional geopolitical hub are broader and, most importantly, coordinated and synchronized with Turkey’s Military Intelligence Service (MIT).
Aselsan’s President and CEO, Ahmet Akyol, commented on the official opening of the company’s office in the Balkans: “We are pleased to see that the growing trust of our customers is reflected in the projects we undertake in the Balkans and that Aselsan continues to expand its global footprint. This office will serve as a strategic hub for our operations in the Balkans, working with regional countries and local partners.”
Turkey’s deep-rooted positioning in Macedonia with its military resources, technology, and structures is yet another contribution to the destabilization of Macedonia and the entire Western Balkans. Erdogan’s Turkey cannot be trusted, even when bearing gifts.
