The belief that we are on the brink of a regional war is not recent and cannot be attributed solely to current events. Although in recent decades, Iran and Israel have successfully worked to avoid a larger-scale war, recent events in Syria have fundamentally changed the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. Just a few hours after the fall of Assad’s regime, Israeli forces took control of the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, expanding the demilitarized zone and seizing important strategic positions.
TANKS NEAR DAMASCUS
Israeli tanks have reached 27 km from Damascus, while Israeli aviation destroyed weapons storage sites. For illustration, an airstrike near Tartus was so intense that a 3.0 magnitude earthquake was registered as a result of the strike. The damage was immense—helicopters, planes, missile and ammunition storage sites were wiped off the map. The Israeli Air Force targeted sites near Aleppo, Latakia, Hama, Homs, and other locations. More than 500 hits were recorded, making this the largest air operation in Israel’s history. About 80% of Syria’s military capacities have been destroyed, and the remainder will likely be wiped out in the coming weeks. With Assad’s fall, a shift in the geopolitical game has occurred, giving Israel the opportunity to carry out preventive airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear positions without needing US assistance or approval.
IRAN’S FRONTIER
The new geopolitical redistribution of power enables Israel to turn Syria into what they call a “sterile defense zone.” By eliminating a dangerous regional rival and turning it into a geopolitical battlefield, Israel plans to use Syrian airspace to create a corridor for a “preventive” strike on Iran. With the destruction of Syria’s air defense, the frontline has shifted 600 to 700 km eastward, towards the Syrian-Iraqi border. Israel can now send planes, such as strategic KC-130 Hercules tankers, several kilometers further east, enabling combat aviation to be safely refueled for flights to Iran and back, which was previously not possible. Syria had one of the densest air defense systems in the world, possessing Russian medium-range systems such as the SA-17, SA-22, and SA-6. The Syrian military doctrine was exclusively defensive, in line with Iran’s efforts to turn Syria into its “frontier” to curb Israel and protect its logistical corridor to Lebanon.
NO ROOM FOR ERROR
To understand the challenge Syria’s air defense posed to the Israeli Air Force, it’s important to highlight the chronic problem that combat aviation had with refueling. While Israeli F-35s are capable of bypassing air defense systems, tanker planes do not have this capability. Tankers are large, slow, and not equipped with stealth technology, so even ordinary, outdated anti-aircraft guns pose a significant threat to them. However, the quality of Syria’s air defense is best exemplified by its actions against fighter aviation, as proven in 2018 when the Syrians managed to shoot down an Israeli F-16. Despite all this, for Israeli tanker planes, Syria was a no-fly zone, severely limiting the operational capabilities of Israeli air forces. In such circumstances, it was impossible to carry out airstrikes on Iran, as the scale of such an operation and the geographical distance left no room for error.
INACCESSIBLE DISTANCES
This also applies to the F-35, the most advanced aircraft Israel possesses, with a combat radius of about 1,100 km. Let’s assume that Israel decided to send an F-35 squadron from the Ramat-David base; the total distance to Iran and back would be around 3,000 km. This distance is unattainable for jet fighters, and this doesn’t even account for maneuvers and the payload the aircraft would carry, making the overall distance even greater. Even if tanker aircraft were used, as much as is possible within Israeli airspace, the range of the F-35 would increase to a maximum of 2,700 km, or a radius of about 1,350 km, which is still insufficient. Thus, Israeli air dominance over Iran has never been possible, not without US support.
ELIMINATION OF SYRIAN AIR DEFENSE
Recent events have radically changed the situation on the ground and in the air. Israeli sources report that the neutralization of Syria’s air defense was so fast and effective that they managed to destroy almost 80% of all medium-range SA-22 systems and an incredible 90% of all SA-17 systems. In this way, Israel created a free and secure air corridor for its aviation. The shift of the air front line by 600 to 700 km eastward allowed tanker aircraft to safely traverse Syrian airspace and make up the distance for fighter jets. Israeli jets can now easily take off from the Ramat-David base, fly along the Syrian air corridor and over Iraq, reach Iran, bomb military and nuclear infrastructure, and, after completing the mission, return to Syrian airspace for refueling.
ISRAEL’S ACTION – WITH OR WITHOUT TRUMP
The elimination of Syria as an important regional and geopolitical player has certainly positively affected Israeli self-confidence. The Israelis feel confident enough to believe they are capable of carrying out a decapitation strike on the Iranian regime, targeting the Ayatollah and the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Netanyahu will likely attempt to take advantage of this “interregnum” and the chaos in Syria, as well as the incoming Trump administration, to plan new military operations and will likely try to convince Trump to join in a potential strike on Iran. Even if Trump would not want to join, Israel could initiate an independent military operation and then drag the US into the war.
SAVING HEZBOLLAH
Cornered, Iran will try, as it knows best, to strengthen Hezbollah’s position, which has acted as a factor in deterring Israel for years. Iran and Israel have been in a stalemate for years, preventing open escalation. Iran had a network of proxies it used as leverage against Israel. If Israel were to attack Iran, the Iranian leadership would give Hezbollah approval to launch a full-scale attack on Israel. According to estimates from 2018, Hezbollah had about 130,000 rockets. However, in June 2024, an Iranian official overseeing Hezbollah’s operations announced that Hezbollah now possesses around one million rockets.
LEADERSHIP ELIMINATIONS
True or not, even according to the most optimistic estimates, the lower end of this figure would still represent immense firepower and pose a deadly threat to Israel. However, recent eliminations of leaders and military personnel have significantly diminished Hezbollah’s operational capabilities. Although most of the rockets are still in Lebanon, Hezbollah’s command structure has been decimated, and the organization itself has been compromised. Without the threat from Hezbollah, Iran has lost a key geopolitical asset in its relations with Israel. Iran is now in a deadly race against time and is forced to hastily work on strengthening Hezbollah, which will not be easy.
IRAN’S “BLIND SPOT”
The chaos in Syria has been further exploited by Israel to create a buffer zone near the Golan Heights, southwest of Damascus. While Syrian rebels marched toward Damascus, Israeli forces quickly mobilized and took over abandoned Syrian positions on the Golan Heights without a fight. Israeli leadership, including Netanyahu, claims that the goal of this ground operation is to deter hostile forces from attacking Israel, which is why Tel Aviv describes the entire operation on the Golan Heights as a “temporary operation.” However, the territory Israel has seized is twice the size of Gaza and is of great strategic importance, making it unlikely that Israel will simply abandon it. The most significant military-strategic aspect of this operation is the capture of the Syrian side of Mount Hermon, whose peaks rise to about 2,800 meters above sea level and tend to create so-called “blind spots” or gaps for air defense, especially for radar systems.
CONTROL OVER MOUNT HERMON
For decades, the mountain has caused major problems for Israeli air defense. Their radars were unable to observe beyond the mountains, primarily the territory and airspace of Lebanon. Hezbollah and Iran used this “blind spot” by sending low-flying aircraft and drones that could infiltrate Israeli territory unnoticed and without issue. This “blind spot” was an important link in Iran’s land corridor. Using the natural features of Mount Hermon, Iran could send ammunition, weapons, and equipment to Lebanon, specifically to Hezbollah, unhindered.
SEARCHING FOR ALTERNATIVE ROUTES
However, Israel now controls the entire mountain and is likely to install radar systems on its peaks, which will allow for uninterrupted control over the territories of Lebanon and Syria. This way, Israel would create an early warning system for incoming low-flying drones, planes, and missiles.
Additionally, Israeli intelligence is now able to monitor the movements of Iranian logistical convoys and provide the data in a timely manner to the military. Without the mountain, it will be difficult for Iran to support Hezbollah. Any hostile movement in southern Lebanon and Syria will be detected on time. Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, stated that the organization has lost its supply route through Syria, so Iran is forced to find alternative supply routes.
A NEW WAR ON THE HORIZON
We noted that Hezbollah has recently deteriorated and lost its earlier operational potential. For weeks, its leaders have been eliminated, which has negatively affected the organization’s hierarchy, particularly in terms of staffing. To fill the gaps, it is necessary to recruit new members. It is well known that Mossad has had agents within Hezbollah, especially in the lower ranks. These lower-ranking members were given opportunities to advance to higher positions. If Iran manages to establish at least some loose connection with Hezbollah, this weakened Hezbollah would create additional problems in terms of information leaks and sabotaging further actions. Thus, another task has been set for Iran; in addition to revitalizing its logistical corridor, Iran is also forced to further confront Israeli agents.
Without Hezbollah as a credible deterrent against Israel, with Israel controlling Mount Hermon and the Syrian air corridor, Iran is cornered. This difficult position for Iran could influence its leadership to take a path similar to the one Russia took in 2022.
“RAT-LIKE” LOGIC
To better illustrate Iran’s position, we could use an anecdote. Putin often recalled a detail from his biography when, as a child, he and his friends chased rats through the streets of St. Petersburg. When they cornered a rat, it would turn around and almost always attack them. This “rat-like” logic applies to geopolitics; when a power finds itself in an unfavorable situation or in a state of permanent decay and decomposition, it will usually respond with aggression to those challenges.
There are already media reports that Trump’s team is considering preventive strikes on Iran. Of course, all this information should be taken with caution, but if these claims are accurate, it is important to note that Netanyahu bears the greatest responsibility. If the cause of war were a provoked action by Iran, the trigger for war would be Netanyahu’s readiness, for the sake of maintaining power, to push the entire Middle East into a new war, and possibly even the whole world into World War III.
