With election season rapidly approaching, the Hungarian people will head to the polls on April 12, 2026 to decide not only the future of their country, but the trajectory of the European national-populist movement as a whole.
Having dominated Hungarian politics since 2010, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán now stands at a crossroads, facing the most serious threat to his leadership in sixteen years. Without a doubt, the outcome will have profound implications for Europe and its various patriotic, populist, and nationalist movements. The stalwart prime minister is seeking to retain a parliamentary majority amid economic stagnation and a large swath of uncertain voters, rendering this election existential for Fidesz. Tension fills the air in Budapest as the energy of TISZA supporters has the status quo on edge. Hungarians worry for the future of their nation torn between two incredibly popular candidates.
A NEW FORMULA: “EVERYONE AGAINST ORBÁN”
Péter Magyar’s swift rise in popularity reflects growing frustration among Hungarian voters with economic stagnation and soaring costs of living, trends initially set in motion by the COVID-19 pandemic and later exacerbated by the economic consequences of the Russo-Ukrainian war. Many of these factors are, of course, structural on a global level and beyond Fidesz’s control, but Péter Magyar seized the opportunity to betray his ex-wife, Judit Varga, to gain political clout.
The 44-year-old former government insider, who was once a well-connected figure in Fidesz, has become an unexpected leader of the opposition by railing against corruption—real or perceived—and promising radical reforms to the system. The fact that his campaign leveraged on a personal scandal has been a point of contention during this election cycle, but nonetheless his grassroots campaigning in rural areas has managed to erode support from Fidesz’s usually rock-solid voting-bloc. TISZA has become a movement which draws massive crowds, with tens of thousands attending rallies where he accuses the Fidesz government of running a propaganda machine.
In the months following, Magyar rapidly built a coalition on the back of the failure of the grand coalition from the 2022 election cycle. This bizarre collection of neoliberals, socialists, those on the center-right, and what used to be considered a nationalist party completely overturned the chessboard of Hungarian politics. The new meta is “Everyone against Orbán,” which allowed Péter Magyar’s newly established TISZA party to quickly become the second-largest party in the country. TISZA, launched in 2024, has shaken up the political scene by uniting disjointed opposition forces, and capitalizing on discontent over allegations of corruption and Orbán’s “illiberal democracy.” Magyar’s savvy use of social media and non-stop rural tours has propelled the party forward, swallowing up voters from liberal, green, and left-wing rivals willing to compromise on his Fidesz past.
THE BRAND OF PRAGMATIC CONSERVATISM
Grievance politics continues to reign over pragmatism, and the urge for something new and different leads younger, more immature voters away from Fidesz. TISZA, it’s worth noting, enjoys overwhelming support among voters under 39, where it leads Fidesz 41% to 22%, but older voters still favor Fidesz by a slim margin. This generational divide—largely due to economic woes and calls for change—appears to be swaying Hungary’s youth, potentially tipping the scales in a razor-thin race. However, on-the-ground reporting has observed hesitation among opposition-aligned voters, stemming from Magyar’s personal scandals and his conservative politics being perceived as “FIDESZ Jr.,” as described by MSZP voter György M. of Budapest.
Péter Magyar has crafted the party into a brand of “pragmatic conservatism” that, so far, appears effective at siphoning off traditional Fidesz voters by copying, at least from an optics standpoint, many Fidesz positions while also claiming to be an anti-corruption candidate. Magyar positions TISZA as center-right, pledging to keep Hungary anchored in the EU and NATO with “pragmatic relations” toward Russia, but critics see this as vague opportunism and phony signalling that mimics Orbán’s playbook. The strategy being pursued by Magyar reveals that Fidesz policies remain popular with the Hungarian electorate. Magyar’s promises to root out corruption and introduce term limits still ring hollow to some given his insider history, yet they’ve undeniably resonated with the population amid Hungary’s three-year economic slump.
DISAGREEMENTS IN PUBLIC OPINION POLLS
Magyar has begged other parties to drop their candidates and promised them a seat at the table should he claim victory. In building his movement, he has tapped experts like an international energy specialist for foreign policy and a former Shell executive for economics, aiming to present a competent, technocratic alternative to Orban’s ruling government. This coalition-building mirrors past opposition failures but has gained traction by focusing on reviving the economy and unlocking billions of frozen euros held by Brussels.
Polling data in the country has been notoriously inconsistent, and reveal several courses this election could take. Recent surveys carried out by pollsters associated with the anti-Orbán opposition, show TISZA maintaining an eight-point lead over Fidesz among decided voters, with 48% support for TISZA versus 40% for Fidesz. Pro-government pollsters, however, paint an entirely different picture, showing Orbán leading by 7-8%. The race remains tight, with undecided voters creating uncertainty and the gap narrowing from earlier double digits. Orbán could retain his majority, but this discrepancy in the data shows the outcome is likely to be razor-thin, with accusations of pollster bias being thrown on bothsides of the aisle.
Orbán, aware of the economy as his weak point, has launched a spending program targeting the struggling restaurants sector, household heating subsidies, and extra pensions in February. Improving polling numbers have followed these policies, but they do not target the economic stagnation directly. However, the prime minister has promised further corporate tax reforms to attract investment with a target of 2% GDP growth and further cooperation with the United States and China. US President Donald Trump has endorsed Orbán, as well Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, France’s National Rally leader Marine Le Pen, as well as other leaders in Europe’s national-populist movement.
IF ORBÁN LOSES THE MAJORITY…
If Orbán loses his majority, he could still retain his position as Prime Minister if he strikes a deal with the competing nationalist party, Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland). This nationalist opposition party is backed by about 5% of decided voters consistently in the polling data and positions itself as a harder line alternative to Fidesz on nationalist issues. Such a coalition could allow Orbán to retain power by leveraging shared anti-globalist positions, while simultaneously forcing a reassessment of guest worker policies that have proven deeply unpopular with a segment of the Hungarian public.
Mi Hazánk arose as a response to Jobbik’s 180 degree turn around, when it threw in its cards with deeply unpopular figures on the left-globalists like Ferenc Gyurcsány, who nearly ran the Hungarian economy into the ground during his premiership in the 2000s. Mi Hazánk filled the void left by Jobbik’s shift to the “United for Hungary” coalition during the previous 2022 election cycle. The failed multiparty coalition only received 32.5% of the vote by running Péter Márki-Zay, a center-right independent mayor, as a protest vote candidate for the left. Mi Hazánk rose from that election as a splinter of Jobbik into the only relevant nationalist opposition, and now potentially takes the role of kingmaker in this close race.
THE THIRD POSSIBILITY
There’s a third possibility of a hung parliament if the votes are split evenly. With TISZA at 49% and Fidesz at 39% in some polls among decided voters, and Mi Hazánk at 5%, an even split could lead to prolonged negotiations or instability. This scenario would likely intensify Hungary’s economic challenges, with negotiations to form a government exacerbating interim uncertainty.
A decisive Orbán defeat would have ripple effects throughout the European continent. Orbán and his government have been exceedingly effective in pushing back against the madness of the European Union, utilizing his veto to temper the Commission’s overreaching agendas, using its media networks to strengthen national-populist voices, and promoting national sovereignty among member states. A Europe without Orbán would drastically weaken conservative, populist, and nationalist forces across the continent, as he has been a long standing blueprint for—and backer of—populist leaders.
His ousting could embolden Brussels against similar national-populist governments as its gaze would turn to the other thorns in their side, such as Slovakia’s Robert Fico or the Czech Republic’s Andrej Babis.
Orbán’s defeat would end Hungary’s vetoes on Ukraine aid and EU sanctions on Budapest, potentially releasing over €20 billion in frozen funds and shifting the EU’s balance toward more unified support for Kyiv. Although the EU formally agreed to halt deliberations on Hungary ahead of the election, it is no secret that Brussels would prefer a Péter Magyar victory and is, in all likelihood, working quietly behind the scenes to engineer that outcome.
A CHOICE BETWEEN WAR AND PEACE
Orbán has accused the EU and Ukraine of meddling in Hungary’s election, claiming Brussels funds opposition actors and Kyiv provides IT support to Tisza. He summoned Ukraine’s ambassador over alleged “coordinated measures” to influence the vote. EU Parliament reports have criticized Hungary’s use of AI-generated campaign materials and have labeled it a “hybrid regime of electoral autocracy.” Orbán, for his part, has pointed to wasteful spending by the EU, and Péter Magyar as representing more of the stupidity and recklessness of Brussels and Kyiv. With the campaign heating up, Ukraine has summoned Hungary’s ambassador in protest over these allegations. This tit-for-tat has escalated tensions, as Orbán declares this election as a choice between war and peace, while Brussels sues platforms like X for data access while pushing the Russian interference narrative as justification.
Orbán’s message has struck a chord with many Hungarians who argue that Brussels’ sanctions on Russian gas have been economically disastrous, crippling the energy sector and dragging down growth across Europe. Orbán argues that continued EU support for Ukraine risks economic ruin, echoing his warnings about the bloc’s policies leading to “chaos and poverty” if Hungary aligns too closely.
PETER MAGYAR – UNDEFINED ON KEY ISSUES
A staggering 83% of Hungarians fear foreign interference in the 2026 election, according to a new poll, with 53% suspecting Russia, 49% the EU or US, and 25% Ukraine. This widespread feeling has caused Péter Magyar to temper his rhetoric on sensitive issues like migration and EU relations, as perceptions of Ukraine as a threat have worsened since the war began. Magyar has been vague on key issues, avoiding strong commitments that could alienate voters, mirroring similar issues with the Márki-Zay campaign last election cycle.
Magyar has attempted to straddle Hungary’s sovereignty and continued cooperation with the EU to court euroskeptical voters, but many Hungarians see contradiction rather than pragmatism in a man unwilling to take firm positions—particularly when set against Orbán, a battle-tested leader who has proven time and again that he can defend and lead the nation.
