On the first Tuesday of November 2024 (November 5), the United States elects its new president, the 47th in line. In terms of significance, these elections can be compared to those held in 1800, featuring candidates Thomas Jefferson and John Adams, marked by the first sharp polarization and political conflicts, as well as a sense of determining the nation’s future. This is similar to the 1860 elections, during a period of deepening cultural and social divisions over issues like slavery, racial rights, and other matters, when Abraham Lincoln came to power in a country divided between two irreconcilable factions, and also comparable to the 1968 elections when the U.S. was deeply divided due to the unpopular Vietnam War, racial issues, and social unrest.
THE CYCLICAL NATURE OF AMERICAN POLITICS
This year’s elections are also accompanied by a heightened sense of distrust in the electoral process, institutions, and mainstream media, similar to the elections in 2000 when Americans chose between George W. Bush and Al Gore, remembered for the dispute over vote counting in Florida. Added to this is the recent 2020 presidential election with allegations of election irregularities, post-election violence, and the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot. The elections of 1800, 1860, and 1968 illustrate the cyclical nature of American politics, where the same themes—political divisions, social unrest, racial issues, and ideological differences—reappear in different forms, bringing new challenges for the U.S. at a crucial geopolitical moment.
A NEW TEST FOR AN OLD SYSTEM
Although this year’s election initially appeared to be a rematch of 2020, when Donald Trump and Joe Biden competed, the elections took on a new form from July (when President Joe Biden ended his campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris). After the first presidential debate between Trump and Biden on June 27, when the Republican representative’s popularity surged following a perceived victory, through a failed assassination attempt on Trump on July 13 in Pennsylvania, to the media alarm over Joe Biden contracting COVID-19 on July 17, and the start of Kamala Harris’s independent presidential campaign on July 21, the 2024 elections quickly became highly turbulent for American political and democratic life. What is certain is that these elections could serve as a new test for the controversial democratic system of the United States, with the potential to once again change the course of history.
UNCERTAINTY ACCOMPANIES THE CAMPAIGN
The 2024 U.S. presidential election, with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris vying for power, promises to be one of the most contentious in recent history. The reason is Trump’s persistent insistence on returning to the White House, while Kamala Harris, according to Democratic interpretations, has allegedly solidified the Democrats’ position following the second presidential debate on September 11. In the first weeks of her campaign, Harris recorded a rise in polling numbers, achieving nearly a 4% lead by the end of August, though this doesn’t guarantee anything. Like in 2016, these elections remain uncertain. The outcome largely depends on voter turnout and the Democrats’ readiness to resort to electoral irregularities as they allegedly did in 2020. National polls aren’t the best way to predict election results (they serve to explain public sentiment on a candidate or issue rather than forecast outcomes), but they give a general overview of the current situation in the U.S. a few days before the election.
A CLOSE RACE
As poll results constantly fluctuate, it’s worth noting that the following sections use polling data as of October 30, 2024. According to recent sources like FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, the race is extremely close, making it impossible to determine who actually has the lead. National polls generally show both Trump and Kamala Harris with around 47–48% of total voter support, leaving about 8–10% of voters undecided or leaning toward third-party candidates. Since most states heavily favor one side or the other, focus usually shifts to a dozen battleground states where the race remains close. The undecided segment will be crucial, especially in key swing states.
A SHIFT IN PENNSYLVANIA
Pennsylvania. Polls show that by the end of September, Kamala Harris held a slight lead in this state by about 1–2%. However, Trump maintains a strong base among rural voters here and has consistent leads in smaller counties, helping him secure victory in 2016. As of October 30, 2024, Trump leads in Pennsylvania, 48% to 47.6%. This turnaround in Pennsylvania, as well as in Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio, and Iowa in 2016, brought Trump to the presidency. Another such shift could make Trump president of the U.S. once more, provided no vote fraud or other irregularities occur.
THE MOOD IN ‘GREAT LAKES’ STATES
Michigan and Wisconsin. According to polls, Kamala Harris holds a marginal lead in the “Great Lakes” states, often within the margin of error. Urban areas in these states and younger voters could tip the scales in her favor, while Trump’s appeal in agricultural towns and among “blue-collar” workers remains strong. On July 26, Trump held a slight lead in Michigan, but from July 30 to October 8, Harris’s advantage grew. Nonetheless, this Democratic shift is minimal, so Michigan remains as uncertain as Wisconsin, where Harris led from August 1 to October 8, with margins now minimal.
SHIFTING REPUBLICAN STRONGHOLDS
Georgia and Arizona. Once Republican strongholds, these states have “shifted,” according to some analysts. Kamala Harris held a slight lead in late August by about 1%. However, from September onward and throughout October, we see a slight return to Trump by 1–2%. This trend was also seen in Arizona at the end of September, where Trump led by 2.2% as of October 30. This indicates an undecided outcome in these two states, with vote direction hinging on turnout and voter enthusiasm.
NEVADA IS UNDECIDED
Nevada and North Carolina. The focus in recent days has shifted significantly to these two states. While leaning slightly Democratic, Nevada remains undecided. North Carolina, with its mix of conservative rural areas and progressive cities, has increasingly leaned Republican since September 30. A demographic analysis of the polls also sheds light on the future election outcome. Kamala Harris leads among “progressive” voters, primarily the younger generation (ages 18–29), who prioritize issues like climate change, racial and social justice, education, and healthcare. Polls show around 60% of young voters lean Democratic, a significant bloc if turnout is high.
URBAN-RURAL DIVIDE
Urban voters, African Americans, Latinos, progressive women, and the LGBTQ+ community lean toward Kamala. Trump leads among older voters, often by a margin of 10% or more. This group favors Trump’s firm stance on the economy and skepticism toward Democrats’ progressive policies. His support is strongest among the white working class in rural areas and small towns, especially in the Midwest and South, favoring his stance on immigration, economic nationalism, and the “America First” policy of Woodrow Wilson (1913–1921). Evangelical Christians, conservative Catholics, and Latinos also support Trump. Thus, the urban-rural divide is stark.
EQUAL CHANCES
Kamala’s support is strong in urban centers, while Trump’s base remains concentrated in rural areas. Pew Research analysis highlights a greater likelihood of reliable turnout among Trump’s rural supporters, while Kamala’s urban supporters, though more numerous, face turnout challenges that could narrow her lead. Political prediction models currently show both candidates have a chance of reaching the 270 electoral votes needed for victory. Trump’s path largely mirrors his 2016 strategy, focusing on the Rust Belt and southern states. Kamala’s path depends on reclaiming these states and securing traditionally Democratic strongholds, with recent gains in Georgia and Arizona as potential wins.
SWING STATE VOTES
Prediction models currently give each candidate around a 50% probability, with Trump’s chances increasing in recent weeks due to economic concerns and Kamala’s declining favor among independents, as seen in Pennsylvania and Georgia. According to the polls, Trump is doing significantly better than in 2016 and 2020, especially in swing states, where he leads in eight out of twelve. The 2024 election remains highly contentious, with polling showing unprecedented closeness, indicating that voter turnout will ultimately decide who becomes the new president. However, polls are not always reliable indicators, as demonstrated in 2016 and 2020.
EVERY VOTE COUNTS
With the economy and healthcare as major issues, both the Republican and Democratic representatives face a challenging campaign as it draws to a close. As the race intensifies, polling data and expert insights emphasize a close election where every vote counts, setting the stage for a historic and potentially transformative outcome for the U.S. However, as historian and author of The Trump Effect, Sasa Adamovic, pointed out, considering all the irregularities of 2020 (when Trump was even more popular than in 2016), his opponents used all possible means to challenge his success: from leveraging the COVID crisis, through racial unrest due to the killing of George Floyd, to halting vote counts in the dead of night and suspicious ballot boxes.
ELON MUSK’S SUPPORT
Trump now holds a much better position than in 2020, enjoying the support of public figures like Elon Musk and other Republican donors, while the Democrats appear divided on numerous issues. Joe Biden’s recent comment labeling Trump supporters as “trash” could further boost Trump’s winning campaign. Given the historically different circumstances and global situation compared to 2016 or 2020, we can say that this election decides the future of the world, not in an absolute but in a nuanced sense.
