Rafale jets among Russian MiGs

Serbia, one of the first five countries in the world to use aviation in combat operations (1913), will for the first time have Western technology among its Russian MiGs. What are the consequences and geopolitical implications of this decision?

The Air Force and Air Defense (AFAD) in the modern context are one of the most important branches of the Serbian Armed Forces, positioning aviation as a crucial element for national defense. In recent years, Serbia has made significant advancements in air defense, with its skies primarily protected by Russian and Chinese systems from the ground. Until now, Serbian aviation has consisted mainly of Soviet, Russian, and domestically produced aircraft. However, this year, with the agreement to purchase 12 new Rafale jets, Serbia has made a noticeable shift toward the West.

A RELIABLE FIGHTER

The MiG-29, a multi-role combat aircraft developed in the Soviet Union, entered operational service in 1983, primarily designed for air combat. This fourth-generation fighter was initially created to counter American aircraft like the F-16, boasting a speed of 2400 km/h, which remains difficult to surpass today, as well as a range of 2100 km. It is an extremely versatile aircraft with significant takeoff capacity, carrying up to 4000 kg of various types of weaponry. It can be equipped with air-to-air missiles and air-to-ground projectiles, and it also features a 30 mm cannon.

The MiG-29 has rich operational experience, having been used in conflicts such as those in Libya, Syria, and the former Yugoslavia. It has often performed well even against far superior enemies. This may be one reason why this Russian-made aircraft has also been integrated into NATO armament through variants like the MiG-29G/MiG-29GT. Therefore, it is a well-tested and proven combat aircraft capable of carrying out various missions in complex situations, making it suitable for countries seeking reliable technology.

TECHNOLOGY VERSUS TRADITION

On the other hand, the French Rafale is a newer model that entered operational service in 2001. It is equipped to carry out a wide range of air missions as well as provide support to ground forces. Notably, it can also carry nuclear weapons. This is certainly a more modern aircraft, featuring the RBE2 radar and the SPECTRA system. Although newer than the MiG-29, the Rafale has already seen action in various conflicts such as those in Libya, Syria, and Mali. It can carry up to 9000 kg of weaponry but has a lower speed than the MiG, reaching up to 1300 km/h.

Thus, while the Rafale is a modern aircraft with advanced technology, the MiG-29 remains a significant player in the world of combat aircraft, still capable of executing all necessary tasks. Considering the MiG-29’s significant potential for modernization, the question arises whether it is necessary to disrupt the tradition of Serbian aviation for the sake of modern technology, or if the reasons for acquiring the Rafale lie elsewhere. This very question is currently troubling the Serbian public.

MIGS AS GIFTS, RAFALES FOR BILLIONS

Serbia has a long-standing tradition of using Soviet and Russian aircraft. During the period of the former Yugoslavia, MiGs were used—first the MiG-21, then the MiG-29. During NATO’s aggression against Yugoslavia, MiGs were the backbone of the country’s aviation. After the aggression, only four MiG-29s remained, and the turning point for revitalizing Serbian aviation came with the help of friends, specifically the Russian Federation’s decision to gift six MiG-29s to Serbia. The planes were delivered in 2017, and in 2021, Belarus gifted Serbia an additional four MiG-29s. Thus, of the fourteen MiG-29s currently in Serbia’s squadron, ten were gifts from allied countries.

On the other hand, Serbia will have to allocate significant funds for the French Rafales, with the amount understandably worrying the domestic public. Although any arms acquisition is simultaneously an economic, military, and political decision, it raises the question of whether this decision implies a geopolitical shift for Serbia from East to West, given that the Rafale is a Western product designed to align with NATO standards and function best in an allied environment.

RAFALES DON’T GO TO ENEMIES

In military circles, there is a theory that this type of aircraft is not sold to “enemies.” That is, whoever purchases the French Rafales in some way has a guarantee that they will not go to war with NATO. Once again, it is striking that Serbia, which was bombed by this very alliance in 1999 and is the main obstacle to its full presence in the Balkans, is still given this possibility. For example, Croatia, a NATO member, purchased used Rafales, while Serbia, which is not a member of the alliance, will invest €2.7 billion in new ones—a significant sum for a small country like ours. However, as noted, Serbia received a somewhat favorable price and a reasonable delivery time. According to Dassault, the first Rafales will arrive in Serbia by 2028. This can be seen as a positive outcome of the Rafale procurement negotiations but also as part of the package that Rafales are not sold to NATO’s enemies.

THE FUTURE OF SERBIAN AVIATION

The MiG-29s are older aircraft but are already well integrated into the existing military system. On the other hand, for Serbian pilots to fly Rafales, they must undergo training or retraining, and it remains to be seen how effective they will be afterward. Additionally, there is the issue of maintaining these aircraft and obtaining spare parts.

The fact that Serbia and its military have been accustomed to Eastern technology is evident from the fact that only Soviet, Russian, and Serbian aircraft are currently part of its aviation. Until now, Serbian pilots and mechanics have not dealt with Western aircraft in this sense. Now, for the first time, Serbia is acquiring Western technology with the 12 French fighters. The first question that arises is how the military, with such a long tradition of using Eastern technology, will adapt to this.

Another significant issue is cost, where MiGs offer good performance for a much lower price. Additionally, the Russian Fulcrums have great modernization potential. This is, in fact, the Russian aircraft that has undergone the most transformations compared to all other aircraft types. Significant flexibility in terms of innovations through more modern radar systems and weaponry allows it to compete with much younger aircraft. Since the MiG-29 was primarily designed for air combat, the major modernization step is that it can now also carry out ground-related missions, making it a multi-role combat aircraft.

MORE THAN A POLITICAL DECISION

Thus, when comparing the mentioned Russian and French aircraft, there are advantages and disadvantages for both types. However, the decision to purchase aircraft should not be driven solely by these factors, but also by the country’s needs and capabilities. One must consider potential threats, economic capacity, and the security environment in which the country is situated, as well as long-term strategic goals.

It is evident that Serbia faces the challenge of conceptualizing its aviation within the modern security and geopolitical framework. Citizens have shown skepticism toward new Western and expensive technologies and how they will fit into the existing system. Many also believe that the MiG-29 is a stable platform upon which Serbian aviation should build its future. On the other hand, some argue that the technical capabilities offered by the Rafales may prove far more cost-effective in the future.

The decision to purchase aircraft is not just a temporary political choice but a vision of what Serbian aviation should look like in the future. It could also indicate the direction the country is heading in geopolitical terms. As a country that still balances between a friendly East and a Western-imposed environment, Serbia must be careful that sudden shifts in arms purchases do not lead to geopolitical shifts, especially if they do not reflect the will of the majority of the population.