The European Union has found itself in a certain crisis over the past years. This crisis partly stems from the slowing economic growth and real lag behind leading BRICS and SCO countries, which possess colossal elements of so-called hard power in international relations (territory size and quality, population number, natural resources, economic power, military power). This is evidenced by the fact that Russia has surpassed all European countries, including Germany, in terms of GDP based on purchasing power parity, and this year climbed to fourth place in the world, overtaking Japan. China is first, and India is third. The European Union is also shaken by a series of contradictions and conflicts of interest, and particularly in recent years, it has been affected by the migrant crisis, the COVID crisis, and especially the Ukrainian conflict. Each of these crises has disrupted EU unity and caused divisions, as well as resistance from several countries to the decisions of official Brussels and Strasbourg.
This has also reflected on the Balkans, especially on its member states in this region. How do Southeastern European countries, mostly EU members, respond to the need to support Ukraine and the appeals of the Union’s centers of power, as well as NATO, of which they are often members?
ROMANIA´S MILITARY SUPPORT
During the Ukrainian conflict, Romania has supported Ukraine in multiple ways, including cooperation in the military sphere. During Zelensky’s visit to Bucharest in October 2023, it was agreed that a contingent of Ukrainian pilots would be trained in Romania. In addition, NATO from Romania oversees part of the Black Sea aquatory during the Ukrainian conflict, and part of Ukrainian grain and products is exported through Romanian ports. Romania has also received financial incentives from the EU to expand and renew airports and infrastructure in its regions bordering Ukraine.
ORBAN´S STANCE
Hungary, thanks to the policy and administrative management of President Viktor Orban, has taken a significantly different stance from most other European countries regarding Ukraine and Russia. Orban’s concept involves reducing, as much as possible, the intensity of tensions in the region and across the continent. He advocates for reducing tensions with Russia and attempts to ensure that the sanctions imposed on Moscow are not comprehensive and gradually decrease. Hungary sees its economic and geopolitical interests here. Relations between Hungary and neighboring Ukraine are not the best, partly due to the status of the Hungarian national minority in Transcarpathia, where there is a Hungarian interest. At the beginning of 2024, Hungary strongly resisted the EU’s efforts to approve a new large financial aid package to Ukraine. Orban was cautious and even opposed the EU approving a principled aid to Ukraine in the next period of about 54 billion euros. However, faced with various pressures, including the freezing of EU funds intended for Hungary, Viktor Orban had to agree and give Brussels the green light for further aid to Ukraine. Orban pointed out that otherwise, EU countries, without Hungary’s consent, would send aid to Ukraine and take away part of the funds (about 20 billion euros) belonging to Hungary. Budapest maintains cooperation with Russia, refuses to provide military aid to Ukraine, and, in extreme political duress, agreed that funds from it, on behalf of the Union, would go to Kyiv only for civilian needs. As Hungary currently presides over the Union, Orban visited Moscow and met with Putin, causing a series of contradictions at the top of the EU.
TANKS TURNED TOWARDS TURKEY
Greece has helped Ukrainians in various ways during 2022 and the conflict in Ukraine. Greece has received Ukrainian refugees on its territory and sent certain material and military aid. It is true that this military aid was within outdated models of combat vehicles and weapons. Most of this military aid was given to Ukraine after several months of negotiations in the so-called “circular deal and delivery” where 40 Soviet-made tanks were handed over to the Ukrainians. On the other hand, within these agreements, Greece received 40 Marder tanks from Germany as compensation, which it immediately sent to the Evros River on the border with Turkey. Athens’ explanation is that these tanks will be used for defense against migrant incursions, but also against Turkey.
Greece has sent various military aid to Ukraine, including BMP-1 armored vehicles, small arms, and ammunition. However, Athens has hesitated to deliver more modern or advanced weapons systems, such as Leopard 2 tanks or S-300 air defense systems, to retain its defensive stance against Turkey or because the country currently cannot replace them. At the end of January 2024, it was revealed that the US is offering Greece financial and military aid to send certain types of its weapons, of Soviet and American origin, to Ukraine.
ALLEDGED MILITARY SURPLUS
The Biden administration offered the Greek government three 87-foot Protector-class patrol boats, two Lockheed Martin C-130 H airlifters, ten Allison T 56 turboprop engines for Lockheed P-2 patrol planes, plus 60 M-2 Bradley fighting vehicles, and a shipment of transport trucks. All of this is allegedly American military surplus and available to Greece for free under US legal authorization called “Excess Defense Articles.” Federal law allows the US president to declare excess military systems necessary, assign them value – potentially zero dollars – and transfer them under the condition that the recipient transports them. Additionally, a larger sale package to Greece has been announced, including 40 Lockheed F-35 stealth fighters, which Greece is buying for $8.6 billion. The Biden administration had previously approved $60 million in 2022 and 2023 to finance Athens’ purchase of weapons. On the other hand, for these aid services, the Americans expect greater Greek assistance in arming Ukraine, as Blinken noted.
Furthermore, the US has hinted that if Greece sends the next quotas of weapons to Ukraine, it could approve a financial reward of around $200 million to Greece. In this direction, it is suggested that Greece could give Ukraine Soviet and American weapons it holds in its warehouses, such as the S-300 and long-range air defense batteries Hawk, Tor, and Osa, short-range air defense vehicles, and ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns, as well as ammunition for all these systems. The political and military leadership of Greece has already given preliminary consent for these types of weapons to be sent to Ukraine. The complexity of Greece’s position lies in the fact that the US sells weapons to both Greece and Turkey at the same time. As Turkey approved Sweden’s entry into NATO, it received weapons from the US worth $23 billion, including 40 new Lockheed F-16 fighters and 79 upgrade kits for older F-16s, plus ammunition for the fighters.
SUPPLIES THROUGH THE CZECH REPUBLIC
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis visited Odessa on March 6, 2024, and held a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss Ukraine’s defense needs. During this visit, Russian forces bombarded the city with missiles. Following the visit, Athens announced to EU officials that it could deliver large ammunition supplies to Ukraine via the Czech Republic by the end of the calendar year, including 90,000 90mm projectiles, 180 70mm anti-tank missiles, 2,000 127mm Zuni rockets, and 4 million rounds of ammunition. Greece also reportedly plans to sell 70 of its M114A1 howitzers, American-made, to the Czech Republic for eventual transfer to Ukraine. These systems are not needed by the Greek military but could still be useful on the muddy terrain of Ukraine, according to the Kathimerini agency. All these weapon transfers would be carried out under a bilateral agreement between Greece and the Czech Republic.
In January 2024, Greece reached an agreement with the US to purchase F-35 fighter jets for over eight billion dollars. On the other hand, Greece would give Ukraine some of its outdated weapon systems. A major stir was caused by the announcement that these could include S-300 systems, whose improved version is in the Greek armed forces. Greece had excellent relations with Russia, including arms purchases, before 2022. Greek Foreign Minister Gerapetritis stated that the country would not potentially send its troops to Ukraine under any scenario.
ZAGREB AHEAD ALL
Croatia has shown solidarity with support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. In this regard, official Zagreb even leads the region. For instance, in November 2022, Croatia decided to accept a contingent of Ukrainian soldiers for additional training on its territory. On the other hand, President Milanović is more reserved than Prime Minister Plenković in criticizing Russia and supporting Ukraine. At the beginning of 2024, Croatian Defense Minister Ivan Anušić stated in Brussels that his country had provided aid to Ukraine amounting to about 180 million euros.
BULGARIAS HESITATION
Due to its public opinion, Bulgaria has refused to provide military aid to Ukraine besides civilian assistance. However, there are indications that some Bulgarian weapons supplied to third countries ended up in Ukraine. The political leadership of Bulgaria accepts military-technical cooperation with Ukraine but not the delivery of weapons, a stance reiterated throughout autumn 2022. However, during 2023, Bulgaria increasingly showed a willingness to send military equipment and weapons aid to Ukraine. During the summer, the government expressed readiness to deliver military aid to Ukraine, but President Radev opposed it. The problem then becomes concretizing this aid in practice, and in September, the sending of faulty S-300 surface-to-air missiles and ammunition for automatic handheld weapons was considered.
Specifically, at the end of 2023, it was mentioned that Bulgaria hinted at handing over 100 used BTR-60 military transporters to Ukraine. After President Rumen Radev vetoed their delivery, a parliamentary vote decided to proceed with the delivery. However, problems arose with Sofia’s principal demand that it could not bear the transport costs, as neighboring Romania was unwilling to waive imagined transport fees, so it was requested that a leading NATO power bear those costs (as Ukraine stated it lacked funds for transport costs). It appears that Bulgarian society is at least divided over the conflict in Ukraine. Nonetheless, Prime Minister Nikola Denkov visited Kyiv on February 28 and assured Zelensky of Bulgaria’s principled support for Ukraine “against Russian aggression.” In principle, Bulgaria is politically and even more socially divided over the conflict in Ukraine. Although the government gives general political support to Ukraine, concrete help, especially in arms and equipment, is avoided for various reasons. Interestingly, Bulgaria allowed an overflight of Russian delegation led by Lavrov for the OSCE summit in Skopje over its territory. On the other hand, following the death of opposition figure Navalny, a note of dissatisfaction was issued, appealing for the release of several political prisoners in Russia.
PROMISSED AID
In addition to imposing sanctions on Russia, Slovenia has sent various aid to Ukraine, including weapons. For example, at the end of October, it delivered 28 Leopard tanks and received 43 military transporters from Germany in return. North Macedonia, on its part, has given the formation of T-72 tanks previously purchased from Ukraine in 2001. Besides tanks, certain older equipment was also donated. Official Skopje decided to assist Ukraine with rehabilitating energy infrastructure in November. Albania closely collaborates with the US and has sent some aid to Ukraine, including symbolic military assistance. In this direction, it is important to note that in February 2024, a meeting of leaders and representatives of Southeastern European countries was held in Tirana, attended by Ukrainian President Zelensky. On this occasion, political support was emphasized, and further military assistance to Ukraine from Balkan countries was proposed.
CORVETTE FOR UKRAINE´S NEEDS
Turkey has not imposed sanctions on Russia and does not fully align with all NATO moves regarding the Ukrainian conflict. On the other hand, Turkish shipyards are building the corvette Hetman Ivan Vyhovsky for Ukraine’s needs. Concerning the straits, Turkey adheres to the position defined by the current international agreement in Montreux, reached almost a century ago. Evident are Turkey’s attempts to position itself as a mediator in potential negotiations to resolve the Ukrainian conflict.
The European Union has a problem with the Ukrainian conflict, as it has fully accepted American and NATO interests in defining this conflict. Russia has been designated as the main culprit and has been sanctioned, affecting the economies of Union members, especially Germany, France, and Italy. Additionally, Union members send various aid to Ukraine, including military aid, and support Ukrainian refugees. Such a policy is also imposed on the smaller EU member states of Southeastern Europe.
This text addresses the direct military-technical assistance of these countries to Ukraine during the previous period. On the one hand, there is a desire to help Kyiv due to the pressure from NATO and the US, which the Union generally agrees with. On the other hand, each of these countries has its geopolitical interests, and many do not want to confront Russia, and the resources of equipment and weapons are precious to them, which they reluctantly deliver to Kyiv.
